Kansas Farmers Have $284 Million at Risk — And $6 Diesel Could Turn Harvest Into a Cash-Flow Squeeze
Kansas farms report gasoline, fuels, and oils as one expense line rather than diesel gallons. This brief reconstructs diesel-equivalent volume, tests three exposure levels, and estimates how a $6 diesel environment could affect annualized farm cash flow.
Key findings
Estimated diesel-equivalent gallons
Annualized exposure at 75%
Approximate price trigger
Methodology
We divide the USDA-reported Kansas fuel expense by the EIA Midwest No. 2 diesel benchmark to estimate 148.1 million diesel-equivalent gallons. Because the census category is broader than diesel alone, we model 50%, 75%, and 100% exposure rather than presenting one false-precision estimate.
What the scenarios show
| Exposure case | Share modeled | Annualized exposure |
|---|---|---|
| Lower bound | 50% | $189.5 million |
| Central case | 75% | $284.3 million |
| Upper bound | 100% | $379.0 million |
These are annualized sensitivity estimates, not a forecast of a full year at $6 diesel. Timing matters: harvest concentrates fuel demand and working-capital pressure into a narrow operating window.
Data sources
- —USDA NASS, 2022 Census of Agriculture — Kansas gasoline, fuels, and oils expense
- —U.S. EIA Midwest (PADD 2) No. 2 diesel retail price
- —Bloomberg WTI crude and ULSD crack-spread market data